We talked about Round 3 yesterday.

What about Round 1 off in the distance, with deadlines beginning in September?

Or what about all of you slated to begin on campus for the Class of 2022, who are planning to quit your job by early summer and move to wherever your school is located, in order to matriculate for the incoming class?

Well, things might not go exactly as planned.

You’re obviously aware that the stock market is in collapse. The stock market is not equivalent to the economy, but in this case, both are exhibiting real signs of true distress. Because of the shutdown in consumer activity, the economy in America is experiencing a major hit. Like, major. There is absolutely no way around that now. Anyone who says recession is only “likely” is just trying not to cause a panic. We are going to go into a recession, and it’s likely to be felt worldwide.

Recession means that unemployment goes up. When people are out of work, then they can’t pay their rent. Evictions and foreclosures can happen. Small businesses go bankrupt. It snowballs.

The good news is that the banks, and the airlines, and many many other major corporations were all in very healthy condition right when this happened. That’s why the stock market had been going up-up-up with seemingly no limit in sight: It’s because business was very good for a very long time. This means that many of these companies have cash available. Even the airlines, which are currently experiencing their worst shock ever, in all of history. They have a lot of cash on hand. They also have tremendous fixed costs over the next 30 days, and almost no revenue (comparatively speaking). In the short term? They will do fine. If this drags out for a longer term, like more than two months? Then it becomes a different picture.

EssaySnark now is starting to believe that this may drag out more than two months.

If you’d asked us 48 hours ago, we would’ve said yeah sure, a recession is coming, but that we expect this hit to the economy would take 2 or 3 months and then we’d begin to move into a recovery phase, and by the start of the school year in August/September 2020, that things would be mostly back to normal in society. That Round 3 would be weird, but then we’d see a standard Round 1 again this year. That it’s going to be painful, and there will be financial losses, and many businesses will be implementing layoffs. And we would’ve gone on to say that it would mean your chances of getting in may be tougher for Round 1. Layoffs has traditionally meant that lots more people will set their sights on school. If the employment situation looks grim, people of a certain age look around and decide that an education might be a good thing to pursue now. And that would have an impact on Round 1 in the Fall which would likely become more competitive again.

But if the schools aren’t able to resume on-campus in-person teaching because we’re still worried about spread… Which actually is a realistic scenario that we’ve just now become aware of… (local pdf stored on our servers here in case that link ever goes dead)

Then everything changes.

Not just your MBA plans. But everything.

Not trying to be alarmist — though it’s likely to be alarming to you, if you read that report.

We’re glad that FINALLY the U.S. and UK governments are paying attention to, like, SCIENCE.

omfg

Not sure when we’re going to resume regularly scheduled MBA / bschool programming here because we don’t yet know what to tell you to do.

We’re doing lots of reflecting and researching and studying up on how this is going to play out. Not just for bschool, but for us.

We will do what we can to provide fact-based information. If you get too triggered, and too anxious from reading about these possible scenarios, we will try to warn you in advance, as we’ve done on this post today.

If you have RELIABLE information that you want to share, from carefully vetted sources, you’re invited to do so in the comments.

Everything that you’re doing right now is REALLY IMPORTANT. Yes it sucks. Yes it’s totally inconvenient. Yes there are impacts and life is not as much fun today as it was two weeks ago.

But the efforts that you’re making contribute to flattening the curve. And that’s going to save lives.

Sorry that your St Paddy’s Day had to be celebrated in your living room instead of a pub.

There will be more St Paddy’s Days in the future. Things will get better again. And then we’ll be able to look back and remember what a crazy time March 2020 was for us all.

For now: Stay home. Hang tight. Text your buddies with your complaints and find a good friend to share the stress with — from a distance. For real. Don’t cut corners on this. All of the San Francisco Bay Area is under a “shelter in place” law that is likely to extend to other areas very soon. If you’re not currently living under such restrictions, it would be best if you started living that way voluntarily. Don’t go out if you don’t have to. Don’t shake hands. No hugging. This is serious stuff people. TAKE IT SERIOUSLY. Even if YOU won’t die if you get sick from this, OTHER PEOPLE WILL. It’s up to us as individuals to change the trajectory of this thing.

We’ll keep posting on our five-day-a-week schedule as always. We’re all in this together, BSers. Let’s see where it goes and how we can make the best of it by coming together, staying sane, being smart, and not panicking. It is NOT the end of days. It is NOT the end of civilization as we know it. It IS a big deal, but action is now being taken to protect those who are at risk, and we’ll see where it goes. We’re starting with tremendous strength. Keeping informed, and keeping things in perspective, is what EssaySnark is about, so that’s what we promise to you here as we go through this together.