Tweet Me!
Share on FacebookWe finally get to the simple question asked about what was going on with Ross. (Nobody’s gonna ask us a question again, ever, after this! We hope we haven’t put y’all to sleep lately. But what else are we going to talk about during the agonizing wait lull between deadlines and decisions??)
When we dig into the data — as we’ve done ad nauseum now over the past week+ — we discover that Michigan Ross had a reasonably even-keel 5-year run, from 2006-’07 to 2010-’11 application years (around 2,900 MBA applications/year), and then a big falloff in 2011-’12, down about 500 apps. What caused that cliff?
To answer that, we need to look at the makeup of the candidate pool. Ross saw a surge in international interest in the 2010-’11 season — over 1,600 apps, which appears to be an all-time high for them. And they accepted proportionally more international candidates then too: one-third of that class of 500 students (165) was from abroad. By contrast, only 21% of that Class of 2013 is from the Midwest. That’s a big dip from the standard at Ross, which averages 28%, and was a whopping 36% Midwesterners two years previous. We have no idea if either the increase in international students or the decrease in local students was by design, in an attempt to diversify their class beyond the Midwestern focus, or if it was a reaction to the makeup of that year’s candidate pool. We’re guessing the latter.
But then the following year, they didn’t maintain that higher interest from overseas. International applications went down to their pre-recession levels. So from our calculations – which admittedly could be off – it appears that half the loss in Michigan’s 2011-’12 app volumes from prior-year was due to a decrease in international apps.
Michigan Ross: Total vs International App Volumes, 2006-’07 to 2011’12
There could be many factors going into all this. We don’t know what the Ross marketing spend was that year. We don’t know if they curtailed admissions recruiting trips to Asia. We have no idea what, if anything, they did different operationally. These things don’t happen in a vacuum and there’s lots we’re not privy to.
Yet even with the recent dip in international, it’s nothing to fret about. The 2011-’12 season saw international apps at near-exact levels to 2006-’07. Unless a school is are going to increase their class size, or is willing to increase their ratio of international to domestic students, they don’t actually need to increase apps from overseas; status quo is fine. Of course, Ross ended up doing both those things recently: their class size went up by almost 15% over these six years, and that seems to have been largely to accommodate more international students (that’s another bit of pure EssaySnark conjecture but it looks like it from the data). The good news then: It’s actually been a lot easier for an international candidate to get into Ross lately.
And that leads us back to a decrease in Americans targeting Ross as being a big chunk of the drop from 2010-’11 to 2011′-12, and what’s part of a trend that’s likely to have alarmed the Michigan admissions peeps too: Over the last six years, it appears that Ross’ domestic candidate numbers have dropped by 34% in aggregate. And that’s where we reiterate “the economy” as the cause – specifically that the regional economy has suffered from an extended period of very high unemployment, and Ross, despite being located in lovely Ann Arbor, is still a small-town school, with closest proximity to Detroit, which doesn’t have the best image (conjures up images of abandoned houses and crime for many).
Still, Michigan Ross as a top bschool has a lot going for it. We’re going to offer a summary of all of this tomorrow. We’d be very surprised if the number of domestic applicants has not recovered at least a little in our current admissions season.
We invite your thoughts!
It’s all about location… I almost applied to Ross, but it fell off my list do largely to location… Lets look at Ross, and it’s peer schools:
Ross – Ann Arbor is a cool place, but it’s near some of the worst cities in the country…
(Worst cities for crime according to http://www.neighborhoodscout.com/neighborhoods/crime-rates/top100dangerous/)
- 3) Flint, MI, under an hour away
- 5) Saginaw, MI 1.5 hours away
- 6) Detroit, MI 45 mins away
- 10) Inkster, MI 30 mins away
Yale – I hate New Haven… but its only 1.5 hours from NYC and 2-2.5 hours from Boston.
NYU – NYC… The Village… I love the Village. (and those SoHo girls…)
Cornell – Middle of nowhere sure but it’s a nice safe area. 4 hours to NYC, 4 hours to Philly, 4 hours to Toronto, 5.5 to Boston, 2.5 to Buffalo(alright, maybe not a plus.. I hate Buffalo)
Darden – Charlottesville is cute, Richmond is close, and DC is only 2-2.5 hours away
Duke – The research triangle is an exciting place with a growing economy, consistently voted one of the best places to live.
UCLA – LA, I hate it, but some people love it…
Detroit’s brand has dropped sharply over the past six years, and, unlike the rest of the country, it’s image hasn’t bounced back at all… I wouldn’t be surprised if domestic apps we stagnant this year
Warning, hearsay info to follow:
To add, I just read on one of the MBA boards out there, that during a recent visit Q&A, adcom claimed that this year’s class size would be shrinking from 500 to around 440. (reasons stated “Cramped building, and that consulting recruiting too competitive”). So.. since we’re speculating, aside from the reasons given, when a class shrinks by 12% you’d assume applicant volume didn’t grow.
That would not surprise us – Ross was at the 420-440 level on class size from 2002 to 2008. They popped up to 500 in Fall 2009 based, from what we can see, on international app volumes. But maybe, like Maker’s Mark, they realized that they were diluting their brand and have decided to retract.
The most interesting part of what you related is the thing about consulting recruiting. Since everybody’s essays these days are saying they want to be a consultant, then this could signal bad news for a lot of BSers (not the fact that consulting recruiting is competitive, which it always has been, but that an adcom would lump that comment in with a statement that they’re decreasing their class size — implies they’re gonna be accepting less of those types).
Another case for Duke: UNC Sorority Girls are only about a 20 minute drive away.
NOW you’re starting to home in on the reasons people apply!!!
Do you have data on what Ross’ tuition was (both in-state and out-of-state) back in 2006-07? Reason I ask is that the current tuition + fees is $50K in-state, $55K out-of-state (http://www.bus.umich.edu/admissions/financialaid/tuitionandcosts/mba.htm). You mentioned the in-state discount in a previous post, which right now looks pretty nominal as both are about the same as what top private schools charge, such as fellow mid-western school Kellogg. Tuition there is $56K (http://www.kellogg.northwestern.edu/Programs/FullTimeMBA/Tuition_Financial_Aid_Scholarships.aspx), so Ross can’t even really use the ROI argument.
I bring up historical tuition, because back in 2006-2007, UCLA and Hass charged $23K in-state and $33K out-of-state (I have no data to back this up other than that my brother was enrolled at Anderson at this time), so back then you could make the ROI cases for these schools – especially for CA residents (granted it’s 2006-07 dollars and there’s been inflation, but work with me – most private schools were in the $45-$50K range). However, a few years ago the University of California jacked up the tuition and now Haas and Anderson are priced the same as private schools…California resident ($51K) or not ($54K) (http://www.haas.berkeley.edu/finaid/MBA/cost.html).
Basically, this is a long-winded way of wondering if Ross had a similar price-hike that took place which took away any real incentive for Michigan residents to apply.
The in-state tuition thing was definitely a steal of a deal a few years ago at UC schools, and the gap has indeed narrowed. The cool thing though is if a Haas or Anderson student establishes residency, then they qualify for the tuition break in their second year. This is probably why the UC Regents closed the gap in the rates – that, and the fact that California was verging on bankruptcy and pulled back a huge chunk of funding.
We haven’t been tracking in-state vs non tuition for those few schools that offer it but we do have the full 2-year program costs for someone entering in Fall 2007:
Ross: $86,578
UCLA: $74,575
Haas: $75,899
Kellogg: $87,870
So not in the $50k/year range for private schools at the time – Kellogg was at the high end. Today? Yes, $50k/year tuition is common. Ridiculous.
Regardless, we’re doubtful that people have turned away from Ross based on any tuition hikes, in-state or otherwise. We’ve never once heard of a BSer decide not to apply based on cost. We definitely have witnessed panic attacks once they’re ACCEPTED and see the price tag, but in the starry-eyed application phase? Nah.